BMC Infect Dis. 2025 Nov 3;25(1):1477. doi: 10.1186/s12879-025-11466-5.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Infectious mononucleosis (IM), is mainly caused by the primary infection with Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). Generally, most patients with IM are deemed to have a favorable prognosis, yet a small proportion of children will need hospitalization. This study aimed to explore the epidemiological features of IM among hospitalized children in Henan Province from 2014 to 2023 and forecast monthly IM hospitalizations in 2024.
METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of all inpatients with IM in Henan Children’s Hospital and the Third Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2014 to December 2023. Demographic information, clinical diagnosis, and admission time were meticulously analyzed. Wavelet analysis and SARIMA model were employed to identify disease periodicity and forecast hospitalization with IM, respectively.
RESULTS: There were 7,269 IM inpatients, which accounted for 0.70% (7,269/1,036,764) of all hospitalized cases during this period. The number of male patients exceeded that of females in different age groups, admission years, and regions. The overall male-to-female ratio was 1.44:1. The median age of hospitalization was 3 years (IQR 1-5 years), the 1-3 years old children had the highest hospitalization among all age groups. The hospitalization peaked from June to September but decreased to the minimum between January and February each year. In addition, the best-fitted SARIMA model was identified as (1,0,0) × (1,1,0)12.
CONCLUSIONS: This study presents primary data to enhance the understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of IM in Henan Province, China. The utilization of the SARIMA model enables precise forecasting of the trend of IM hospitalization.
PMID:41184809 | DOI:10.1186/s12879-025-11466-5
