Psychol Med. 2026 Sep 3;56:e258. doi: 10.1017/S0033291726105467.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Recent increases in common mental disorder prevalence could partly reflect greater persistence of existing disorders. We examined 3-year persistence for anxiety, mood, and substance use disorders, defined as meeting diagnostic criteria at baseline and again during 3-year follow-up. We compared persistence rates with those observed 12 years earlier and investigated (changes in) determinants of persistence.
METHODS: Data were from the third Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS-3), a population-based study (N = 6,194; 18-75 years; interviewed 2019-2022 and 2023-2024). A slightly modified Composite International Diagnostic Interview 3.0 assessed DSM-5 and DSM-IV diagnoses. Persistence was described from two perspectives: narrow (presence of a mental disorder of the same diagnostic category during follow-up) and broad (presence of any anxiety, mood, and/or substance use disorder during follow-up). Twelve-year trends were examined by comparing DSM-IV persistence in NEMESIS-3 with NEMESIS-2 (N = 6,646; interviewed 2007-2009 and 2010-2012) among adults aged 18-64 years.
RESULTS: In NEMESIS-3, 3-year narrow persistence was 41.6% for anxiety, 48.0% for mood, and 40.3% for substance use disorders. Broad persistence was higher: 57.1%, 63.2%, and 55.1%, respectively. Persistence increased in 12 years across all disorder groups: broad persistence for any mental disorder was 42.7% in NEMESIS-2 and 57.9% in NEMESIS-3. Higher broad persistence was significantly associated with younger age, living in a city, childhood trauma, and near-daily drug use in multivariable analyses. These associations were stable over time.
CONCLUSIONS: Three-year persistence of common mental disorders is substantial and has increased compared with 12 years earlier, suggesting growing challenges for treatment and long-term care.
PMID:42687372 | DOI:10.1017/S0033291726105467
