Br J Psychiatry. 2025 Nov 27:1-15. doi: 10.1192/bjp.2025.10450. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Eating disorders, particularly anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa, are significant global health challenges.
AIMS: This study analyses historical trends and forecasts future patterns of eating disorders among young adults aged 15-29 years using machine learning techniques.
METHOD: Global data on anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa from the Global Burden of Disease study 2021 spanning 1990 to 2021 were analysed, examining incidence, prevalence and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across age groups, sociodemographic index (SDI) levels and regions. Eight machine-learning models were employed to forecast trends from 2022 to 2050.
RESULTS: Bulimia nervosa showed more pronounced increases compared to anorexia nervosa across all metrics. The 15-19 age group had the highest incidence rates, while the 20-24 age group showed the highest prevalence and DALY rates. Low SDI regions experienced substantial increases, with bulimia nervosa prevalence rising by 179.05%. East Asia demonstrated the most significant rise in age-standardised rates. The Prophet model best forecast anorexia nervosa trends, while ARIMA performed best for bulimia nervosa. Projections indicate continued increases through 2050 for both disorders.
CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of eating disorders among young adults is projected to increase significantly by 2050, with bulimia nervosa showing more rapid growth than anorexia nervosa. Substantial variations exist across age groups, SDI levels and regions. These findings highlight the urgent need for enhanced prevention programmes targeting high-risk age groups, strengthened healthcare capacity in rapidly developing regions and evidence-based policy interventions to address the growing global burden of eating disorders.
PMID:41305989 | DOI:10.1192/bjp.2025.10450
