Psychiatry Res. 2025 Sep 28;353:116746. doi: 10.1016/j.psychres.2025.116746. Online ahead of print.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is one of the most common diseases affecting children. Analyzing and predicting the development of ADHD is significant for providing direction and practical references for relevant organizations.
METHODS: Using GBD 2021 data (1990-2021) for children 0-14 years, we applied LOESS regression, Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort modeling, and geographically weighted regression to assess temporal, cohort, and spatial patterns. Analyses considered age, gender, and SDI, with DALYs used for frontier and decomposition analyses.
RESULTS: In 2021, the disease burden had slightly increased in most regions. In low-SDI regions, the Average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of female ADHD burden indicators (prevalence, incidence and disability-adjusted life years rates) differed from that of males. All three indicators increased with rising SDI, with high-middle SDI regions showing AAPCs two to five times those of middle-SDI regions. Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) decomposition revealed distinct effects of epidemiological change and population growth across SDI levels. The results of the projection indicate that the burden of ADHD disease among children will increase, expected to rise by 4.2 %-8.6 % compared to 2021.
CONCLUSIONS: The global burden of ADHD in children and adolescents has slightly increased and is projected to rise further, with pronounced regional, gender and developmental disparities. Low-SDI settings need stronger diagnostic and public-health systems, while high- and high-middle-SDI regions require more effective prevention and intervention. Countries facing rapid population growth should prioritise early screening. Tailoring strategies to national contexts and learning from better-performing peers can optimise resources and help curb the future global burden of ADHD.
PMID:41075539 | DOI:10.1016/j.psychres.2025.116746
